曾建維
國立清華大學教學發展中心
Email：darkdreams0802@gmail.com
蔡清斌
國立臺中教育大學教育測驗統計研究所
Email：tsai.chenbin@msa.hinet.net
阮逢選
國立臺中教育大學教育測驗統計研究所
Email：tuyennguyenphung@gmail.com
Abstract
This study used prediction method GM (1,1) to improve traditional way of calculating the average number, and provide online courses browsing innovative approaches to predict the number of visitors. To select more accurately the sequence browser instability courses, study took Tsing Hua University OCW (OpenCourseWare) as the research subjects that based on the number of visitors in 8 course semesters, total 43 courses from academic year 97 to academic year 100, and from July year 100 to March year 101 (9 months), using the prediction method GM(1,1) in the Grey Theory to predict the number of people visiting the course in April year 101. Research results show that, the suitable between traditional mean and the prediction method GM(1,1) found is relatively high, can pick out the number of courses visitors and through prediction method GM(1,1) can screen out the less stable courses visitors. More importantly, through the prediction method GM(1,1) further selection of traditional mean unable to select courses, but the course growth decline in the number of courses in order to provide the relevant units to enhance course visitors.
Keywords :GM(1,1), Grey Theory, OpenCourseWare